Policy Paper #1
The Gaza War Reshapes Power Dynamics in Yemen and Opens the Door to Divergent Scenarios Between Re-foundation and Fragmentation
The report explains that the Houthi movement is currently navigating a phase in which elements of strength and vulnerability intersect. On the one hand, its involvement in the Red Sea has enabled it to present itself as an influential regional actor; on the other hand, this very involvement has provoked substantial military and economic responses that have weakened its logistical and financial capacity. Within the movement, signs of factional competition have surfaced between the ideological wing, which has reasserted control over the leadership hierarchy, and the pragmatic wing, which seeks to open channels of communication with Arab states. As resources contract, governing areas under Houthi control has become more complex, and internal tensions tied to the distribution of power and resources have emerged—rendering the group’s ability to sustain its current posture contingent on the degree of external pressure and the level of internal cohesion.
On the opposite side, the internationally recognized government is experiencing a deeper structural fragmentation than ever before, driven by a shift in the center of decision-making from civilian institutions to armed groups that have become autonomous centers of power. Regional and international actors tend to engage these forces as more effective tools than the formal political framework, which has marginalized the role of the legitimate government and turned it into an umbrella that accommodates competing contradictions without a unified vision or stable decision-making capacity. This proliferation of power centers has made the government unable to capitalize on the moment of Houthi decline or present itself as a credible leader of a transitional phase; instead, it has become part of a complex equation that requires constant management of internal rivalries.
The report notes a clear shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Yemeni file following the Gaza War. Riyadh has concluded that a bilateral truce with the Houthis is insufficient to ensure stability, and that leaving the file in a political vacuum could invite uncontrolled international interventions—especially given the intensified competition over the Red Sea. As a result, Saudi Arabia is now actively working to recalibrate power balances within the liberated areas by preventing any single actor from monopolizing decision-making, while preserving a minimal level of internal cohesion that can prevent the anti-Houthi front from collapsing. At the same time, Saudi Arabia seeks to secure its land and maritime borders within a more stringent security framework.
Internationally, the United States—particularly following the transition of power—has reactivated its policy of military and economic pressure on the Houthis, although it has yet to produce a parallel political framework capable of steering this pressure toward a comprehensive settlement. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its political footprint by capitalizing on the vacuums created by regional disorder and shifting Western priorities. Moscow appears intent on consolidating a state of “stalemate equilibrium,” keeping Yemen an open arena for negotiation without allowing the emergence of new arrangements that might marginalize its role.
The report concludes that both principal domestic actors—the government and the Houthis—are operating within internal structures that are steadily eroding. The Houthis face ideological factionalism and severe financial strain, while the government suffers from a multiplicity of competing centers that undermine its ability to act as a unified authority. This dual erosion complicates prospects for peace and reduces Yemeni actors to constrained players within an ever-shifting regional and international game.
The analysis outlines six potential scenarios for the near future. The first is the revival of the “Roadmap” in a new format that accommodates Saudi security concerns, restructures the government, and presses the Houthis to lower their negotiating ceiling. The second scenario envisions an expansion of international competition inside Yemen, transforming the country into a site of indirect confrontation between global powers, thereby heightening the risk of internal conflict. The third scenario sees parties resorting to limited military operations to rebalance the field—an approach that could open the door to renewed negotiations but risks uncontrolled escalation if not tightly managed. The fourth scenario anticipates gradual internal fragmentation within the Houthi movement due to economic pressures and factional divides, a highly dangerous trajectory given the absence of any institutional alternative. The fifth scenario considers the potential erosion of the government from within due to competition among its components, although regional constraints make a complete collapse unlikely. The sixth scenario foresees possible leadership changes within either the Houthis or the government, whether through the rise of new figures or the redistribution of power in response to shifting internal and external dynamics.
Ultimately, the report argues that Yemen stands at a moment of comprehensive redefinition—not because any actor is capable of decisive victory, but because all actors are increasingly unable to sustain the previous structures. The country may either move toward a process of “re-foundation,” requiring the rebuilding of decision-making centers within both the government and the Houthis, or drift into a phase of “mutual retreat,” deepening internal fragmentation and leaving Yemen suspended between overlapping regional and international trajectories that local actors cannot control or shape.